Education Week - November 18, 2020 - 6

Did COVID-19 Really Drive Teachers to Quit?
The anticipated
wave of resignations
and retirements
hasn't happened,
data show

News headlines over the summer raised a
fearful specter: teachers resigning or retiring en
masse, terrified they'd get COVID-19 if they returned to the classroom. But an Education Week
analysis shows that the predicted wave of leavers has not materialized across the nation.
As the start of the 2020-21 school year approached and many districts began rolling out
plans to bring students back to campus, teachers across the country wrestled with the difficult
decision of whether to leave their jobs to protect
their health and that of their loved ones or stay
in the classroom. Surveys showed that 1 in 5
teachers said they were unlikely to return to inperson instruction in the fall, and that the same
percentage said they were more likely to quit at
the end of last school year than they were before
the pandemic.
Stoking the fears were some troubling statistics:
About 18 percent of public school teachers are age
55 or older, putting them at heightened risk for serious illness due to COVID-19. And an analysis
by the Kaiser Family Foundation estimates that
about 1.5 million teachers-nearly 1 in 4-have
health conditions that increase their risk for
COVID-19 complications.
But Education Week found there is no way to
validate dire predictions of a national spike in
teachers leaving the classroom. It will be years
before there are federal data that give a clear picture of whether teacher attrition rose or fell nationwide during this unprecedented school year.
What's clear is there are huge regional variations: An EdWeek review shows that teacher attrition this year was higher in some places, lower
in others, and indeterminate in many more.
For instance, educator retirements in New York
state spiked this summer-580 educators retired
in August, compared to 259 educators last year.
There were additional upticks in retirements this
June and July.
However, there is no way of knowing exactly
how much of that increase was driven by K-12
teachers. New York's retirement plan members
include K-12 administrators, too, as well as educators in the state university system and state community colleges, and some state department of
education employees. (It does not include educators in New York City schools, who have their
own retirement plan.) A plan administrator said
" most " members are K-12 teachers, but no precise
percentage is available.
Education Week requested data from half the
state educator retirement plans in the country, all
of which included more public school employees
than just teachers. At least 13 of those, including
New York, were unable to isolate K-12 teacher retirement data, making it difficult to compare data.
The same is true for several big-city retirement
plans for school employees.
When states were able to break out the retirement numbers by job title, there were wide variations from place to place this year compared to
last. Retirement numbers also ebbed and flowed
over time.
Experts say these findings aren't necessarily
surprising. Workers are overall less likely to quit

Bebeto Matthews/AP

By Madeline Will, Catherine Gewertz
& Sarah Schwartz

A coalition of teachers,
students, and families protest
school reopenings this summer
in New York.

WEB EXCLUSIVES:
A closer look at teacher
attrition in Arizona,
New York City, and
Dallas this year shows
how the numbers differ
from place to place.
www.edweek.org/go
teachers-leaving

their jobs or retire during a recession, and teachers
are generally no exception, said Richard Ingersoll,
a professor of education and sociology at the University of Pennsylvania.
Of course, this economic downturn has the added
complication of a contagious and serious virus that
teachers have said they fear catching at work. But
other factors like local COVID-19 transmission
rates and school districts' reopening plans likely
played a role in teachers' decisions, too, Ingersoll
said. Some districts have not yet reopened school
doors for in-person instruction or did so midway
through the semester.
Another consideration: The teaching force is
gradually becoming younger, analyses by Ingersoll
show. The percentage of public school teachers
age 50 and older has consistently ticked down over
the past decade, according to his data. The bulk of

teachers are in an age group that's less vulnerable to
the effects of the coronavirus.
" You're a fifth-year teacher and you're less than
age 30, do you really want to quit? " Ingersoll said.
" Probably not-you're probably afraid to. "
That said, when certain states or districts did
see a spike in teacher retirements this year, Ingersoll said it is likely related to the coronavirus pandemic-because demographic trend lines would
otherwise suggest that retirements should be going
down.

'When Push Comes to Shove'
Going into this school year, many teachers called
for their school districts to stay virtual over fears
that in-person classes would cause the spread of
the coronavirus. (Early data show that outbreaks in

Teacher Retirement Trends Vary Around the Country
Retirements that occurred from April through
September were down this year, compared to
2019, in the nation's largest school district.

From May through August, how many
teachers retired? A sample of states with
teacher-only retirement data shows no clear
trend.

„ 2018 „ 2019 „ 2020
1,566

1,539
1,395
1,257

1,100

1,007
898

657

618

916

725

Massachusetts

Minnesota

SOURCE: Education Week analysis of state retirement plan data

6 | EDUCATION WEEK | November 18, 2020 | www.edweek.org

1,377

Arkansas

New York City
SOURCE: Teachers' Retirement
System of the City of New York


http://www.edweek.org/goteachers-leaving http://www.edweek.org/goteachers-leaving http://www.edweek.org

Education Week - November 18, 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Education Week - November 18, 2020

Education Week - November 18, 2020
Did COVID-19 Really Drive Teachers to Quit?
As Election 2020 Grinds On, Young Voters Stay Hooked
Getting Schools Open: A No-Win Decision as Virus Cases Surge
‘Schools Need to Be Bolder’ About Reopening, Public Health Expert Says
What to Watch as Biden Administration Charts Its Own Path on Education Policy
Who Could End Up Heading Top Senate Panel on Education Issues
Families Not Engaging Remotely? Rethink the Problem
The Election Was Traumatizing For Many Students (and Educators)
The New Face of Teacher Demoralization
Briefly Stated
What the Research Says
Letters to the Editor
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - Education Week - November 18, 2020
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - CW2
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - 1
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - Briefly Stated
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - 3
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - What the Research Says
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - 5
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - Did COVID-19 Really Drive Teachers to Quit?
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - 7
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - Getting Schools Open: A No-Win Decision as Virus Cases Surge
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - ‘Schools Need to Be Bolder’ About Reopening, Public Health Expert Says
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - 10
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - 11
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - What to Watch as Biden Administration Charts Its Own Path on Education Policy
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - 13
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - Who Could End Up Heading Top Senate Panel on Education Issues
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - 15
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - Families Not Engaging Remotely? Rethink the Problem
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - The Election Was Traumatizing For Many Students (and Educators)
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - Letters to the Editor
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - 19
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - The New Face of Teacher Demoralization
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - CW3
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - CW4
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - SC1
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - SC2
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - S1
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - S2
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - S3
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - S4
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - S5
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - S6
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - S7
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - S8
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - S9
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - S10
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - S11
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - S12
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - S13
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - S14
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - S15
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - S16
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - SC3
Education Week - November 18, 2020 - SC4
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