Education Week - September 27, 2017 - 6

''

It's incumbent that we prepare young people
for a world of constant uncertainty."
MICHAEL CHUI, Partner, McKinsey Global Institute

Arnold said. "But it's so much bigger than K-12 education."
That's where Education Week aims to help. We talked to
more than two-dozen experts in the fields of artificial intelligence, computer science, economics, education, and
history. We also reviewed dozens of reports and studies.
Here's what we think you need to know.
Many economists are not nearly as worried as futurists
like Martin Ford.
Yes, technology is going to eliminate some jobs, said
MIT's Paul Osterman, who used to run workforce-training programs for Massachusetts. But doomsday predictions about the future of work overlook the forces of history, human ingenuity, and demography, he said.
A century ago, for example, the United States transitioned from an agricultural to an industrial economy. More
than 90 percent of farm jobs were lost. But new technologies also created new jobs, new wealth, and new consumer
demands. That all led to new work opportunities that all
those displaced farmers couldn't have previously imagined.
Still, most experts foresee substantial upheaval.
Even skeptics recognize that industrial robots and artificial-intelligence-powered digital agents have already
made significant inroads into fields as diverse as manufacturing, health care, logistics, and customer service.
And it's clear that winners and losers are already
emerging. Wages for highly educated people have gone
up, because information technologies complement the
creative, problem-solving, and managerial work they
tend to do. But at the same time, technology has helped
push many less-educated workers into the service sector,
where they receive lower pay and less job security.
Under President Barack Obama, the White House concluded that automation will likely continue to erode the
fortunes of workers who don't have a high school diploma
and who earn less than $20 per hour. The National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine, meanwhile,
warned that technology will begin eating away at jobs currently filled by some highly educated workers.
Then there's this: As the future-of-work conversation
evolves, many analysts are focusing on the specific tasks,
rather than the entire occupations, that technology will
likely take over from humans. An analysis this year by the
McKinsey Global Institute, for example, estimates that existing technologies could be used to automate roughly half
of all the activities that workers are currently paid to do.
In the crosshairs: anything that involves routine physical motions, operating machinery in predictable environments, or collecting and processing data.
If that's how things play out, today's students are going to
need a new set of skills, regardless of what field they enter.
Every young person entering the 2030 labor market
might need a solid grounding in statistics and data science, the thinking goes. Farmers, for example, would need
to make sense of torrents of data generated by sensors and
drones on soil and weather conditions.
To maintain their edge, workers would also need to
focus on cultivating the human qualities that robots still

6

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Education Week * September 27, 2017

lack, such as creativity, empathy, and abstract thinking.
And because most jobs could constantly evolve, today's
students could eventually face a make-or-break question:
Can you adapt?
"I don't think there's any way we can accurately say
what skills and competencies students will need 15 years
from now," said Michael Chui, a partner at the McKinsey
Global Institute. "That's why it's incumbent that we prepare young people for a world of constant uncertainty."

WITH SO MUCH UP IN THE AIR, WHAT WILL DETERMINE
how disruptive the future of work turns out to be?
For all the attention to technology, the answer may
have more to do with our laws, policies, and values.
And it's here that K-12 schools might play their most
significant role, many experts believe.
Imagine, for example, that millions more people do
lose their jobs to automation. Will tomorrow's lawmakers be able to overcome today's partisan divides to craft
an effective social safety net?
Or imagine that being a home health aide is one of the
few in-demand jobs that most Americans can still do
better than a robot. Will tomorrow's workforce insist on
greater status and pay for such professions?
And consider how deeply robots, algorithms, and digital
agents are being woven into important aspects of our lives,
from loan applications to dating to criminal sentencing.
Will tomorrow's citizens be thoughtful and vigilant
in deciding how much control they're willing to give to
technology? Will they be able to recognize and challenge
automated decision-making systems that replicate existing racial, gender, and other biases?
Public education has always been about creating good
citizens, not just good workers. In the age of artificial intelligence, that could be more important than ever.
"Preparing students for the future means helping them
think critically about the new ways decisions are made,"
said Osonde Osoba, a RAND Corp. engineer and researcher.
Are schools up for such a many-sided challenge?
In 2030, will today's 6th graders be afraid of change, or
will they embrace it?
If robots lead to a future flush with leisure time, will
today's students be able to find purpose in making art,
doing citizen science, or helping a neighbor?
"It doesn't have to be a job," said Arizona State University professor James Paul Gee."But each person needs
the skills to make some kind of contribution to a changing world with a lot of problems that need solving."
This is the reality facing the K-12 sector. No one really
knows what happens next. Many jobs will likely be destroyed. New types of work, requiring new types of skills,
will hopefully be created. The problems and opportunities
and paradoxes associated with automation and artificial
intelligence won't be limited to the workplace.
For the nation's educators, the most daunting thing
about this uncertain future may also be the most exciting.
They get to help make it. n

HOW CAN K-12
SCHOOLS PREPARE
FOR THE UNCERTAIN
FUTURE OF WORK?
Advice from top experts
in the fields of artificial
intelligence, computer
science, economics,
and history:
www.edweek.org/go/
futurework-experts
RESEARCH ROUNDUP
Summaries of
10 essential studies
and reports:
www.edweek.org/go/
futurework-studies


http://www.edweek.org/go/futurework-experts http://www.edweek.org/go/futurework-experts http://www.edweek.org/go/futurework-studies http://www.edweek.org/go/futurework-studies

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Education Week - September 27, 2017

Education Week - September 27, 2017
Contents
Taking a Long Look At Schools and Work
Facing an Uncertain Future
‘Intelligent’ Tutors: Will They Change Teaching?
Fastest-Growing Occupations
Are Our Jobs Making Us Less Literate?
Emma Yang, Problem Solver
Colorado Goes All In on Apprentices
Learning How to Learn
10 Ways to Learn
Rewarding Fine-Tuned Skills
There Will Be Jobs
We Will Redefine Work
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - Education Week - September 27, 2017
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - C2
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - Contents
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - Taking a Long Look At Schools and Work
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - Facing an Uncertain Future
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - 4
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - 5
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - 6
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - ‘Intelligent’ Tutors: Will They Change Teaching?
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - 8
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - Fastest-Growing Occupations
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - Are Our Jobs Making Us Less Literate?
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - 11
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - Emma Yang, Problem Solver
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - Colorado Goes All In on Apprentices
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - 14
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - 15
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - Learning How to Learn
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - 10 Ways to Learn
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - 18
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - Rewarding Fine-Tuned Skills
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - 20
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - There Will Be Jobs
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - We Will Redefine Work
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - 23
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - 24
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - C3
Education Week - September 27, 2017 - C4
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