Education Week - May 17, 2017 - 24
America's Economic Future Does Not Hinge on PISA Scores LETTERS to the EDITOR What Successful Readers Need To the Editor: It is satisfying to know that 94 percent of the more than 4,700 pre-K-12 teachers and principals interviewed for a recent Scholastic report agree that students should have time to read a book of their choice independently during the school day ("Study: Teachers Value Independent Reading But Lack Class Time for It," Curriculum Matters blog, www. edweek.org, April 26, 2017). As the blog post notes, the National Reading Panel concluded in 2000 that there was not enough evidence of academic improvement to support silent or independent reading programs in school. Reanalysis and discussion of these results, published in several books, journals, and other publications, including Education Week, show otherwise. Research has indeed confirmed that students participating in independent reading in school outperform on tests of reading comprehension and vocabulary their peers who do not participate in such reading. Contrary to the National Reading Panel's conclusion, there is enough evidence to support independent reading programs in schools. Stephen Krashen Professor Emeritus University of Southern California Los Angeles, Calif. To the Editor: In recent years, Education Week has published at least one Commentary and one opinion-blog post that argue for the very strong connection between the United States' economic future and international test results, specifically those from the Program for International Student Assessment. In a Commentary three years ago ("Why the U.S. Results on PISA Matter," Jan. 8, 2014), the Hoover Institution's Eric A. Hanushek argued that this country's PISA scores-which measure the progress of 15-year-olds nationwide in reading, math, and science-had "huge economic ramifications." So great were the projected economic gains, according to Hanushek's own research, that the potential payout was calculated to be "20 percent higher paychecks for the average [U.S.] worker over the entire 21st century." Similarly, a post by Marc Tucker two years ago ("Why Some Economies Grow and Others Don't," Top Performers blog, www.edweek.org, July 1, 2015) lauded Hanushek's analysis as "stunning." Tucker predicted, based on Hanushek's research, that the long-term gains of raising student test scores would "bring in about $67 trillion dollars over the next 50 years," a figure dwarfing the $4 trillion lost over the Great Recession. But what if Hanushek's numbers were actually wrong? A recent study-our own-scrutinizes these causality claims, using the same sample of countries, data, and methods on which Hanushek based his findings. But since it takes a few decades for students to make up a major portion of the labor force, we compared test scores for one period (1964 to 2003) with economic growth in a subsequent period (1995 to 2014). Surprisingly, the relationship, which once looked so strong, now looks highly suspect. We found that test scores, which originally explained 57 percent of the variation in gross domestic product per-capita growth among countries, now explained only 11 percent of the variation. The real casualty of Hanushek's research is the causality claim, as well as the would-be policy recommendations built upon them. We hope this helps readers to view the close link between PISA scores and a prosperous economy with a more critical eye. WHAT DO YOU THINK? Write a letter to the editor! Hikaru Komatsu Associate Professor Jeremy Rappleye Associate Professor Graduate School of Education Kyoto University Kyoto, Japan COMMENTARY POLICY Education Week takes no editorial positions, but publishes opinion essays and letters from outside contributors in its Commentary section. For information about submitting an essay or letter for review, visit www.edweek.org/go/guidelines. Send to: ewletter@epe.org Letters should be as brief as possible, with a maximum length of 300 words. School & District * Non-Profit * K-12 Business * College & University > Unlock K-12 education with group access to edweek.org. Benefit from premium online access and: > BUILD EXPERTISE through news coverage on education policy and curriculum > RESEARCH with 30+ years of archives and new daily content > UNDERSTAND THE ISSUES with annual reports and our special reporting series > DEVELOP PROFESSIONALLY with subject-specific articles, webinars, videos, and multimedia galleries > FORMULATE STRATEGIES through reports on K-12 market trends, shifts, and buying behaviors > For more information, visit myorg.edweek.org or contact Ryan Lanier at rlanier@epe.org. 24 | EDUCATION WEEK | May 17, 2017 | www.edweek.org/go/commentary
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