Education Week - March 6, 2013 - 6

6

EDUCATION WEEK

n

MARCH 6, 2013

n

www.edweek.org

Study: Best and Worst Teachers Can Be Flagged Early
Washington

New teachers become much
more effective with a few years
of classroom experience, but a
working paper by a team of researchers suggests the most—
and least—effective elementary
teachers show their colors at the
very start of their careers.
“This is a fundamentally different time period for teachers,
when we know they are going
through changes,” said lead author Allison Atteberry, a research
associate in the Center on Education Policy and Workforce Competitiveness at the University of
Virginia in Charlottesville. She
discussed preliminary results
of the study at a research meeting on K-12 and postsecondary
education held by the Washington-based National Center for
Analysis of Longitudinal Data in
Education Research, known as
calder, on Feb. 21.
“We know less about how these
value-added measures work in
the early career,” she added.
The study tracked the individual effectiveness of more than
7,600 incoming New York City
teachers in mathematics and
English/language arts. Each of
the teachers taught 4th or 5th
grade from 2000 to 2006.
The researchers analyzed
teacher records from the New
York city and state education
departments, along with data on
the teachers’ students, including achievement-test results in
math and English/language arts,
gender, ethnicity, home language,
poverty, special education status,
and absences and suspensions.
Ms. Atteberry’s co-authors are
Susanna Loeb, the director of
Stanford University’s Center for

Limited Growth?
However, when teachers at each
initial level of effectiveness were
tracked individually over time,
their growth was much less significant. Compared with other teachers who started at the same time
they did, teachers in the lowest 20
percent were still likely to be in
the lowest 20 percent three to five
years later.
“When you look at teachers who
in the future are low-performing,
very few of those come from the
initially highest quintile of performance, and the same is true in the
opposite direction,” Ms. Atteberry
said. “We see that even more at
the high end: Teachers who are
initially highest-performing are
by far the most likely to be in the
highest quintile in the future.”
Tim R. Sass, an economics and
public-policy research professor
at Georgia State University in Atlanta, who was not associated with
the study, noted that few teachers
perform flawlessly in their first
year on the job and that policymakers should be cautious about

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PREDICTING PERFORMANCE
While incoming New York City teachers became more effective at improving their students’
mathematics and English/language arts performance in their first few years on the job, new research
finds that they’re often still in the same performance quintile after four or five years. Researchers
compared the mean effectiveness in the first two years with effectiveness in later years.

Math

ELA

.4

.4

.35

.35

.3
5th Quintile

.25
.2

4th Quintile

.15

3rd Quintile

.1

2nd Quintile

.05

1st Quintile

0

MEAN VALUE-ADDED SCORE

By Sarah D. Sparks

Education Policy Analysis, and
James H. Wyckoff, an education
professor at the University of
Virginia. They and Ms. Atteberry
are all associated with calder.
For the incoming teachers who
continued to teach for at least
five years, the researchers compared the mean value-added effectiveness at improving student
achievement in math and English
in their first two years of teaching
with their effectiveness for the
next three years.
Overall, the teachers improved
significantly in their first two
years in their value-added score.
While more than 36 percent of
teachers were rated in the lowest
of five levels of effectiveness at
the start of their careers, only 12
percent were still rated in that
same quintile by their third year
of teaching.

MEAN VALUE-ADDED SCORE

Educators’ rankings
don’t move much

.3
.25
5th Quintile

.2
.15

4th Quintile

.1

3rd Quintile
2nd Quintile
1st Quintile

.05

0

-.05

-.05

-.1

-.1

-.15

-.15
0

1

2
3
4
YEARS OF EXPERIENCE

5

6

0

1

2
3
4
YEARS OF EXPERIENCE

5

6

Note: Data include only teachers who have
been in the system for at least five years.
SOURCE: National Center for Analysis of
Longitudinal Data in Education Research

making quick judgments about
new teachers. “Even if you’re not
going to make lots of mistakes, you
will make some,” he said.
Mr. Sass also pointed out that
most teachers who start out as
less effective become at least average after a few years. The mean
value-added measure in the first
two years of teaching accounts
for only about 28 percent of the
total difference in teachers’ valueadded effectiveness scores after
five years, Mr. Sass said, and the
study did not look at specific pedagogical styles or other aspects of
teaching that could explain more
of the difference.
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Still, he said: “Do first impressions matter? The short answer is
yes. Early-career value-added does
a pretty good job of predicting later
performance.”

A Caveat
Based on the New York findings, said Mr. Sass, if a principal
did not keep the teachers identified in the bottom 10 percent
of effectiveness because of their
value-added effectiveness in
their first two years, the school
would get rid of 30 percent of
the teachers who rate as least
effective five years out, and
would keep all the teachers who
would eventually be rated in the
top 10 percent.
He did not recommend outright
that districts try that, but said it
was something to consider.
Mr. Wyckoff, one of the co-authors, said he did not think the
study should be used to justify firing teachers.
Steven Glazerman, a senior fellow at Mathematica Policy Research in Princeton, N.J., who has
studied value-added measures
of teacher effectiveness, said the
study both confirms and raises
some “interesting questions”
about the common understanding
that new teachers improve rapidly in their first years.
He cautioned, however, that because the study only uses data on
new teachers who continued to
teach 4th and 5th grades for at
least five years, it left out 95 percent of those new teachers.
“What’s hard to know about,
but what fascinates me in what’s
exposed by this paper, is the fact
that such a large percentage of
teachers cycle in and out of tested

“

Do first
impressions
matter? The
short answer is
yes. Early-career
value-added
does a pretty
good job of
predicting later
performance.”
TIM R. SASS
Georgia State University

grades,” Mr. Glazerman said.
“That makes it very difficult to
study them using value-added
measures.”
Mr. Wyckoff agreed with Mr.
Glazerman that the small number of teachers who stayed in the
same grades for all five years was
“certainly something we were surprised about.”
He and the other authors are
conducting a follow-up study to
gauge whether that finding was
due to normal attrition among
early-career teachers or something specific to the tested grades.
Scan this tag with your
smartphone for a link
to “Do First Impressions
Matter? Improvement
in Early Career Teacher Effectiveness”
at www.edweek.org/links. A final
version of the study will be posted in two
weeks at www.teacherpolicy.org.


http://www.edweek.org http://www.edweek.org/go/groupsub http://www.edweek.org/go/groupsub http://www.edweek.org/go/groupsub http://www.edweek.org/links http://www.teacherpolicy.org

Education Week - March 6, 2013

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Education Week - March 6, 2013

Education Week - March 6, 2013
Los Angeles School Board Race Shatters Spending Records
Feds, States Dicker Over Evaluations
Governors Take Varied Routes in Boosting Aid
Principal Appraisals Get a Remake
Contents
News in Brief
Report Roundup
Study: Best and Worst Teachers Can Be Flagged Early
FOCUS ON: PRESCHOOL: Obama Preschool Proposal Stirs Debate Over Training
Principals Lack Training in Shaping School Climate
KIPP Outpacing Regular Public Schools, Study Finds
INDUSTRY & INNOVATION: Wisconsin Data-Contract Fight Goes Public With Ad Campaign
DIGITAL DIRECTIONS: Pew Survey Gauges Teachers’ Attitudes About Tech., Equity
Blogs of the Week
Voting Rights Act Case Has Stakes for Districts
Back Home, Top Lawmaker Gets Earful on K-12 Policy
Policy Brief
Sequestration and Education: Frequently Asked Questions
9 California Districts Seek Own NCLB Waiver
House Panel Weighs School Safety Concerns
MATTHEW LYNCH: Tracing Technology’s Unintended K-12 Consequences
ANGELA MINNICI & ELLEN BEHRSTOCK-SHERRATT: Using Teacher Evaluation to Grow
ANITA KRISHNAMURTHI: Recognizing the Impact of After-School STEM
Letters
TopSchoolJobs Recruitment Marketplace
JD CHESLOFF: Why STEM Education Must Start In Early Childhood
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - Education Week - March 6, 2013
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - Cover2
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - Principal Appraisals Get a Remake
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - 2
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - Contents
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - News in Brief
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - Report Roundup
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - Study: Best and Worst Teachers Can Be Flagged Early
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - FOCUS ON: PRESCHOOL: Obama Preschool Proposal Stirs Debate Over Training
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - Principals Lack Training in Shaping School Climate
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - KIPP Outpacing Regular Public Schools, Study Finds
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - INDUSTRY & INNOVATION: Wisconsin Data-Contract Fight Goes Public With Ad Campaign
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - 11
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - 12
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - 13
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - DIGITAL DIRECTIONS: Pew Survey Gauges Teachers’ Attitudes About Tech., Equity
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - Blogs of the Week
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - 16
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - 17
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - 18
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - 19
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - Back Home, Top Lawmaker Gets Earful on K-12 Policy
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - Sequestration and Education: Frequently Asked Questions
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - House Panel Weighs School Safety Concerns
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - 23
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - 24
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - ANGELA MINNICI & ELLEN BEHRSTOCK-SHERRATT: Using Teacher Evaluation to Grow
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - ANITA KRISHNAMURTHI: Recognizing the Impact of After-School STEM
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - Letters
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - 28
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - TopSchoolJobs Recruitment Marketplace
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - 30
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - 31
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - JD CHESLOFF: Why STEM Education Must Start In Early Childhood
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - Cover3
Education Week - March 6, 2013 - Cover4
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